United States · Federal Reserve

United States: federal funds target 3.75 to 4.00%

Federal Reserve · Federal funds target

3.75to4.00%
+25 bpsfrom 3.50 to 3.75%

The Fed raised the federal funds target by 25 bps to a range of 3.75 to 4.00% on Sep 16, 2026, effective Sep 17, 2026, its first hike since July 2023, after nine months unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75%.

“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.”FOMC, Sep 16, 2026
Decided
Sep 16, 2026Effective Sep 17, 2026
Vote
12–0Unanimous
Cycle
Tighteningsince Sep 2026
Next decision
Oct 28, 202614:00 EDT · in 21 days
A year ago4.00–4.25%
5-year high5.25–5.50%
5-year low0.00–0.25%
52 official sources · release 03ec07b603a9Read the statement

How high it is

Higher than on 74% of days since 2000

Days at each level since 2000. Today’s level is in colour.

Where in the cycle

Tightening, +25 bps so far

Four earlier tightening cycles ran a median +325 bps over 20 months.

Against the ECB

+150 bps above the ECB, wider than on 58% of days since 2000

A year ago the gap was +225 bps.

Among 7 central banks

The 4th highest policy rate of the seven

Above the BoE, ECB and BoC.

What it means for a loan

On a $50,000 loan over 10 years, this hike adds about $7 a month

$
yrs
%

Defaults model a $50,000 prime-linked credit line. Change any field.

If the Fed’s +25 bps reaches your loan
+$7a month
Monthly payment
$600 → $607
Or keep the monthly payment
2 more months
Interest over the loan
+$790
Rate
7.75% → 8.00%
Standard amortisation on the balance left. Your lender’s spread and reset date decide when, and how much of this, you see.

How it reaches loans in the US

Credit lines reprice within days; a fixed mortgage does not move at all

Prime-linked credit lineDirect
Priced off
Bank prime rate
Resets
Within days of a Fed move
Credit cards and home equity lines are priced off the bank prime rate, which has sat 3 points above the target range's upper bound.
30-year fixed mortgageNone
Priced off
Fixed at origination
Resets
Never, unless refinanced
A fixed-rate mortgage does not change with the Fed. New mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields rather than the target directly.
Your loan agreement’s benchmark and reset clause decide which applies.

Where this cycle stands

This tightening cycle is +25 bps in. The four before it ran a median +325 bps over 20 months.

This cycleEarlier tightening cycles, by start yearMedian total

Every cycle since 2000

Five tightening and four easing cycles. Hover one to trace it.

Tightening · latest+25 Sep 2026 · 1 move
Easing−175 Sep 2024 to Dec 2025 · 6 moves
Tightening+525 Mar 2022 to Jul 2023 · 11 moves
Easing−225 Aug 2019 to Mar 2020 · 5 moves
Tightening+225 Dec 2015 to Dec 2018 · 9 moves
Easing−500 Sep 2007 to Dec 2008 · 10 moves
Tightening+425 Jun 2004 to Jun 2006 · 17 moves
Easing−550 Jan 2001 to Jun 2003 · 13 moves
Tightening+100 Feb 2000 to May 2000 · 3 moves

Against the ECB

United States’ federal funds target sits 150 bps above the ECB: a wider gap than on 58% of days since 2000.

United States minus Euro area, in bpsZero: the same rate
Gap today+150 bpsOct 7, 2026
A year ago+225 bpsOct 7, 2025
Widest since 2000+375 bpsFeb 2000
Narrowest since 2000−225 bpsOct 2008
Holding dollars earns more than holding euros, which supports the dollar; a narrowing gap removes some of that support. One input among many, not a forecast.

The record since 2000

75 moves since January 2000, from a high of 6.50% in May 2000 to a low of 0.00 to 0.25% in Dec 2008.

Federal funds targetTarget rangeHikeCut
Live shows the verified record. Announced and Decided preview the states this page goes through on decision day.

Every decision

46 FOMC decisions since Jan 2021: 12 hikes, 6 cuts and 28 holds.

Raised to 3.75 to 4.00%+25Sep 16, 2026 · 12–0 vote
Held at 3.50 to 3.75%±0Jul 29, 2026 · 9–3 vote
Held at 3.50 to 3.75%±0Jun 17, 2026 · 12–0 vote
Held at 3.50 to 3.75%±0Apr 29, 2026 · 8–4 vote
Held at 3.50 to 3.75%±0Mar 18, 2026 · 11–1 vote
Held at 3.50 to 3.75%±0Jan 28, 2026 · 10–2 vote
Cut to 3.50 to 3.75%−25Dec 10, 2025 · 9–3 vote
Cut to 3.75 to 4.00%−25Oct 29, 2025 · 10–2 vote
Cut to 4.00 to 4.25%−25Sep 17, 2025 · 11–1 vote
Held at 4.25 to 4.50%±0Jul 30, 2025 · 9–2 vote
Held at 4.25 to 4.50%±0Jun 18, 2025 · 12–0 vote
Held at 4.25 to 4.50%±0May 7, 2025 · 12–0 vote
Held at 4.25 to 4.50%±0Mar 19, 2025 · 11–1 vote
Held at 4.25 to 4.50%±0Jan 29, 2025 · 12–0 vote
Cut to 4.25 to 4.50%−25Dec 18, 2024 · 11–1 vote
Cut to 4.50 to 4.75%−25Nov 7, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Cut to 4.75 to 5.00%−50Sep 18, 2024 · 11–1 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Jul 31, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Jun 12, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0May 1, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Mar 20, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Jan 31, 2024 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Dec 13, 2023 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Nov 1, 2023 · 12–0 vote
Held at 5.25 to 5.50%±0Sep 20, 2023 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 5.25 to 5.50%+25Jul 26, 2023 · 11–0 vote
Held at 5.00 to 5.25%±0Jun 14, 2023 · 11–0 vote
Raised to 5.00 to 5.25%+25May 3, 2023 · 11–0 vote
Raised to 4.75 to 5.00%+25Mar 22, 2023 · 11–0 vote
Raised to 4.50 to 4.75%+25Feb 1, 2023 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 4.25 to 4.50%+50Dec 14, 2022 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 3.75 to 4.00%+75Nov 2, 2022 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 3.00 to 3.25%+75Sep 21, 2022 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 2.25 to 2.50%+75Jul 27, 2022 · 12–0 vote
Raised to 1.50 to 1.75%+75Jun 15, 2022 · 10–1 vote
Raised to 0.75 to 1.00%+50May 4, 2022 · 9–0 vote
Raised to 0.25 to 0.50%+25Mar 16, 2022 · 8–1 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Jan 26, 2022 · 9–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Dec 15, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Nov 3, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Sep 22, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Jul 28, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Jun 16, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Apr 28, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Mar 17, 2021 · 11–0 vote
Held at 0.00 to 0.25%±0Jan 27, 2021 · 11–0 vote

Among 7 central banks

World view

United States’ 3.75 to 4.00% is the 4th highest of the seven, between Australia (4.60%) and United Kingdom (3.75%).

United States